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| Skipper Bowles Family circa 1971-72 |
Sometimes,often during election years, I enjoy putting to use my NC State University BAdegree in Political Science (’77). While politics is not always pleasurable tothe masses, I do enjoy a good political discussion and campaign. If you do notwant to be bored by the details, fast forward a few paragraphs while I detailmy history in politics.
In1960, before my 8th birthday, I recall my father being asked byTerry Sanford to lead his gubernatorial bid in Lee County (Sanford NC) but Daddeclined because he had already committed to the campaign of Malcolm B. Sewall,who lost the primary to Sanford, and then my Dad—and the family, especially mymother who was also a political junkie—worked on behalf of Sanford who defeatedSanford (NC) attorney Robert Gavin in the general election.
Fouryears later, our family worked on behalf of Richardson Preyer, a former federaljudge who had presided over a civil trial between my father’s business and aninsurance company that didn’t want to pay a claim on a fire that destroyed thebusiness’s main plant and offices. Preyer, who came in first in the primary butwas short of the 50% plus one vote needed to win outright, lost in theDemocratic Party’s run-off election against Dan Moore who was supported bythird-place Beverly Lake. To get Lake’s support, Moore who eventually defeatedGavin, the Republican nominee again, in the general election, promised toappoint some of Lake’s aides if he won. Preyer would not make the agreementwith Lake who went to Preyer with the request before he went to Moore.
In1968, we picked a winner with Democrat Bob Scott whose campaign was managed byRoy Sowers a former assistant to my Dad in his textile machinery business. Mydad, a world-wide successful businessman, was well-known by statewidepoliticians, and, in 1972, when Hargrove “Skipper” Bowles, a state senator fromGreensboro came a calling, my parents, getting older and wiser, leaned a littlemore to the right, wanting Nixon over George McGovern—they also supported Nixonin 1968 against Humphrey because of his close ties to unions—but were okay withsupporting Skipper Bowles whose son Erskine was married to the former CrandallClose, daughter of William “Bill” Close who had married Anne Springs, daughterof the Elliott White Springs who was president of Springs Cotton Mills. BillClose eventually became President of Springs. He and my dad were friends;Springs Mills was a customer of my dad’s business, Roberts Company, purchasingspinning frames. It was “Colonel” Elliott Springs that helped move my Dad’s RobertsCompany from a spinning frame spare parts supplier to being the world’s largestmanufacturer and supplier of spinning frames.
In1972, I was in college and, after a rugged start majoring in Mechanical Engineering(I couldn’t grasp the concepts of the “right hand rule of thumb”), was beginningmy search and studies for a degree in political science. (That’s right. Istarted college in 1970, and finished in 1977: seven years.) Anyway, I was forSkipper Bowles, despite his close connection to UNC-Chapel Hill (forgive me NCState faithful but I didn’t know any better then), but he was caught up in atough situation with Republican Richard Nixon seeking re-election as President andJesse Helms, a popular television commentator, seeking the United States Senateseat against US Congressman NickGalifianakis who had defeated incumbent Senator B. Everett Jordan inthe Democratic primary. Skipper Bowles was defeated that fall by JimHolshouser.
Butlooking back, it wasn’t just that Holshouser was elected on the coattails ofNixon and to some degree Helms. There was more to it—from what I remember—and that’swhere this year’s race for the North Carolina Governorship and that photo atthe top of the page come in. The photo is of Skipper Bowles and his family. Itwas a Christmas card in either 1971 or 1972. It remains in my archives andmemorabilia retained from my parents collection of important things.
Lastweek, NC Governor Beverly Perdue, a Democrat, announced she would not seekre-election. According to everything I’ve read on the internet and innewspapers and heard on radio and television, Perdue wants us to think she wassitting around Wednesday night, February 25 and came to her own conclusion tolimit her time as Governor to one four-year term. This was the “new sheriff intown” when she took office in January of 2009, but as she worked her waythrough three years in office, especially in the last year, her power assheriff was waning. She knew it but was reluctant to admit it. I remembertalking recently to a high-ranking Democratic legislator who is out of powerright now. He told me that not being in power made serving in the GeneralAssembly not as much fun. He was considering not seeking re-election. MaybeGovernor Perdue, though not directly controlled by the Republicans at theGeneral Assembly, felt the same way: not as much fun. It’s not supposed to beabout having fun.
Whatwe know is this: Her battles with the Republican controlled General Assemblywere too much for this tough leader; her battles over campaign financedisclosures and irregularities continue and would have been detrimental, nomatter the outcome even if it all stopped right now, to her effort to getre-elected. She didn’t want to go out in defeat, so she decided to step aside.She says she made the decision so she could fight for her causes without makingit political—as in her re-election campaign. Duh! Anything a sitting electedofficial does is political no matter how she spins it.
Whatwe do not know but we may surmise is that the Democratic Party on the nationallevel and probably through the President’s office asked her not to run forre-election because she would be a drag on President Obama’s effort to winNorth Carolina. The President has visited North Carolina several times sincebeing elected in 2008. He’ll be here more in the coming months. He choseCharlotte to host the Democratic National Convention. His Vice President andCabinet members travel regularly to North Carolina for several reasons, all ofwhich are about his political effort to win the Tar Heel State and the electoralvotes which come with it even if the speeches and talks are policy in nature.There is no doubt that North Carolina will be instrumental in the Presidentialelection in November.
But,and this is big, while Nixon helped to elect Holshouser in 1972, Perdue’s lackof support and the rise of Republican Pat McCrory would bring down Obama inNorth Carolina more than Obama’s effort would elevate Perdue. Without a racefor a United States Senate seat and with new Republican leaning Congressionaldistricts and strong candidates at hand, Obama faces an up-hill battle in NorthCarolina. With Perdue on the ballot, Obama would struggle here. Even if Obamawere stronger in North Carolina, he could not have pulled Perdue along tovictory. So, why take the chance? This is just the opinion of this amateurpolitical scientist who, after very early in the evening of the day of the 1980election after United Press International “called” incumbent Robert Morgan thewinner in his re-election bid, told UPI officials they were wrong, that amistake had been made, that the un-counted votes when tabulated would give theseat to John East. I was correct in my knowledge of the North Carolina votingprecinct maps. Patting myself on the back, I had then and have now a good graspof the political landscape of North Carolina.
So,with Perdue on the sidelines, but still willing to fight the General AssemblyRepublicans over a sales tax increase of less than one penny so she can looklike a hero to the North Carolina Association of Educators, the DemocraticParty, of which I remain a registrant thereof, is seeking a candidate that cando two things: Win against McCrory, and help Obama take the state. While Lt.Gov. Walter Dalton—didn’t you find humor in his commercials in 2008? And, bythe way, who is Walter Dalton and what has he been doing the last three yearsexcept campaigning for re-election?—and State Representative Bill Faison(D-Orange County) have tossed their hats into the race, many of the long-timeand old-time Democratic leaders are asking Erskine Bowles to seek thenomination and the post. They, and there are a lot of them, want him to run forGovernor.
ErskineBowles has a storied background, especially as a Chief of Staff to PresidentClinton and as a President of the University of North Carolina. He’s no doubt agreat leader. He knew how to run Clinton’s office and keep Clinton’s trouble incheck; he knew how to work with Congress to put the United States on better financialfooting; he had a good plan for his work with the UNC System and put into placemany of the current Chancellors, all seeming to do an excellent job under direbudget restrictions and changes. One or two chancellors might not be doing so well withathletics but that’s a subject for a different time.
Erskinehas had a successful business career and would continue to keep a good climatefor business in North Carolina. He would be an excellent recruiter for jobshere. His pluses are many and pile up with ease. But he has negatives as wellincluding that he has never won an election, a public election. He twice ranfor United States Senate—2002, losing to Elizabeth Dole, and 2004, losing toRichard Burr. In 2002, there was strong sentiment for the Republican administrationof George W. Bush, and Dole, a native daughter with a national reputation,returned home and won, 54% to 45%. In 2004, despite a strong effort by MikeEasley in the gubernatorial race, Burr, who had served for 10 years as a memberof the US House of Representatives, came from behind in the final weeks of thecampaign to win 52% to 47%. After that election Erskine basically admitted hemay be better off serving in other capacities.
Thiscould be his moment in politics, but if I were advising him—and what do I know—I’dtell him to stay out, to enjoy his retirement and participate in public serviceon his own terms. He’s good at doing that. There are other reasons. One goesback to the photo, and the other goes straight to President Obama. In 1972, inone of the television commercials, Skipper Bowles had his family together, justas in the photo. The words I remember are not exact but he was introducing hisfamily to the citizens of North Carolina, telling us that when—not if—he iselected these are the people who would be living in the Governor’s Mansion inRaleigh. This was going to be the State’s First Family. Skipper was a very niceperson, a good politician, a sound businessman, but he came across as if healready had the job without the note, a projection the citizens didn’tappreciate so much. Erskine should not assume he can win just because Democratic leaders and friends are telling him he can.
Asfar as the part the goes straight to the President, in 2010, Mr. Obama askedErskine, a Democrat, to co-chair the National Commission on FiscalResponsibility and Reform with Alan Simpson, a former US Senator (R-Wyoming).The result was a report—the Simpson-Bowles report—that outlined a path toreturn the United States government back to a balanced budget, a surpluspossibly, how to restructure Medicare and Social Security to keep both of thoseprograms solvent and working, and a whole lot more. While the votes neededwithin the Commission to pass the report were not secured, President Obamaturned his back on the entire effort and turned it down because it was not politically good for him. Erskine and Simpson, and many others,really believe the work they did was important, but it appears President Obamadidn’t. So, what leads Erskine to believe that President Obama would help himwin the Governorship? "Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me."
IfErskine Bowles decides to take the plunge, to run for Governor, my advice isthis: Do not take for granted you can win just because you are Erskine Bowles,a good name with a good family pedigree, and do not run just because NorthCarolina Democrats in high places asking you to run. And, do not run if youthink President Obama will help your campaign. It’s the other way around. Withyou on the ticket, you’ll be helping Obama, something you may desire, but thatis not a good reason to run for Governor.
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