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When tonight’s BCS National Championship game is history andwhen LSU is walks off the field victorious, for me to pick up one last win inmy entry in a college post-season bowl pool and a self-fashioned contest withSports Illustrated, the Tigers must have scored at least a safety more than theCrimson Tide, the two-point version of the safety not the one-pointer.
A one-point safety, you may ask? Yes, but more on thatlater.
Tonight, the college football season is reduced to one game.It’s the second-coming this year of LSU and Alabama on the gridiron. I cannotwin my bet with Sports Illustrated but finishing only one game back would begood for me. There’s not really a bet with SI, no monetary exchange on theline, no pride for one to gain on the other. It’s my own simple contest in theguessing game of choosing bowl winners this year. After 34 preliminarypost-season games, the chooser—Andy Staples—at SI has 24 wins and 10 losses, andI’m at 22-12. The difference in our selections: the Sports Illustrated tally isbased on picking a winner; mine is from picking a winner using a point spread.
My guessing started when I received the annual email from afriend of my brother-in-law. The guy is an acquaintance to me but we’ve knowneach other for several years, through my wife’s brother. I’m not sure how longhe has organized this contest or how many entries he receives but he donates 50percent of the $5.00 entry fee to a charity. The remainder is paid to the topfour finishers, and he returns the admission charge to the person who placeslast. I presume with a 22-12 record at this point, last place is out of thequestion.
Over the years I’ve done rather well in the annual collegebasketball tournament bracket guessing games, but I’ve never scratched pickingbowl winners. Usually, after a handful of games, I’ve lost interest in the bowlpool and just watched the games for my love of college football. This year, Imade it a contest within a contest, competing against Sports Illustrated’sselections of the bowl winners as announced in its December 19, 2011 edition.(My brother-in-law is not as interested. “I tossed both of my entries into thetrash a long time ago,” he said recently.)
So, here’s how it worked: In the mid-December print edition(also on line), Staples previewed the first 34 bowl games with a shortparagraph which ended with his score prediction. For instance, in the firstgame, the 2:00 p.m. December 17 New Mexico Bowl, Staples picked Temple 28,Wyoming 17. The spread on my brother-in-law’s friend’s contest was Wyoming plus6.5 points. So, when I added the points in the pool to the points in SI, I cameup with a final score of Temple 28, Wyoming 23.5. I picked Temple. Final score:Temple 35, Wyoming 15. Victory for me in game one. Victory for Staples and SIas well. Both 1-0 out of the gate.
Competing in a pool with point spreads is tough. You findyourself cheering for a team to win but not by many. In the Music City Bowl, Ihad Wake Forest plus 6.5 points. But the desire for the Deacons to win outrightwas not in me, for some reason. Maybe it’s because I grew up in the BaptistChurch and always think of Wake Forest as Hell-Fire-and-Damnation, or maybe it’sbecause the Deacons beat my NC State this year. When Mississippi State missedan extra point, I was thrilled. Final score: Mississippi State 23, Wake Forest17. I won by half a point. SI won by picking MSU outright. And so it went.
SI picked Clemson; I had West Virginia plus 3.5 points. Final: WVA 70, Tigers 36. I also had Oklahoma State giving 3.5 points toStanford in the Fiesta Bowl. Oklahoma State won 41-38. SI picked OSU. For whatit’s worth, without the point spread, just picking winners, I’m 23-11, but withthe point spread, my record is 22-12.
The only game SI didn’t pick in mid-December was theLSU-Alabama BCS National Championship game. I had to place my bets before thefirst of the 35 bowl games was played. At that time, the line was Alabama plus1.5 points. My pick is LSU. That was December 16th. Sports Illustrated just recently used eight pages of itspublication to tell us why Alabama will win 13-10. Of course, just to pullwithin one game of Staples and maybe to place in the money in my brother’s-in-lawfriend’s bowl pool, LSU wins tonight by at least a safety.
Oh yeah, the one-point safety explanation: If you’refamiliar with football in the simplest of ways, you know there’s a two-pointsafety scored for the defense when a player with the ball on offense is tackledin its own end zone. Example: Quarterback fades back to pass and is tackled in theend zone, two points for the defense.
However, there are two ways—one way for the offense and oneway for the defense—to score one-point safeties. It can happen when a team istrying to score an extra point, either a one- or two-point attempt. The offense’skick is blocked and a member of the defense picks up the ball and voluntarilyback-tracks into the end zone and is tackled. The team trying the PAT kick getsone point. Same if the offense is trying to run or pass for two and the ball isfumbled or intercepted outside the end zone and the player on defense,recovering or intercepting, back tracks into the end zone and is tackled.Offense gets one point. According to Wikipedia, this actually happened in 2004in a game between Texas A&M and Texas. That’s one point for the offense.
The other way for a one-point safety is for the defense. ThePAT—kick or run or pass—is blocked, fumbled, or intercepted, and the defense advancesthe ball the entire length of the field to get the PAT score itself, but theplayer fumbles near the goal line. A member of the offense (which tried thePAT) recovers the ball outside the end zone and runs into that end zone and istackled. The defense is awarded a point. In other words, the offense scores atouchdown; the defense gets a safety; the score is 6-1. This has neverhappened. (By the way, if I’ve wrongly interpreted the one-point safety, pleasecorrect me in the comments section below.)
We’ve seen a lot of good games, high scoring and lowscoring, in college football this year so seeing a one-point safety by theoffense or defense is not out of the question, but hopefully it will not happentonight, especially if it helps Alabama cover the 1.5 points. Go LSU! Win and coverthat spread!
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